Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) to heavy (top 10% on record) expected in south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected over small areas in northern Bahr el Ghazal and western Equatoria state.
- Moderate rainfall between 50 -200 mm expected over much of the country.
- Light rainfall less than 50 …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm is expected in very few areas in the north-eastern part of the country.
- Light rainfall less than 50 mm is expected over northern and southern parts of the country.
- Dry …
Heavy rainfall
Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in north-eastern parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in north-eastern and north-western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32o C are expected in northern and central Sudan, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and regions in north-western coast of Somalia.
- Moderate temperatures between 20-32o C are expected over southern, …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures between 20-280C expected over much of the country.
- Low temperatures below 200C expected over small area in southern part of Eastern Equatoria state.