Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Exceptionally heavy rainfall is expected in a few areas of northwestern and northeastern Ethiopia (100-200 mm), and over a limited area of eastern Sudan (100-200 mm). Forecast amounts are in the top 1% of rainfall …
Heavy rainfall
The forecast rainfall amounts are ranked as follows:
- Heavy Rainfall: Forecast amounts are in the top 10% of rainfall experienced in this location in the past.
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Forecast amounts are in the …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32 ℃ are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti, and regions in northern coastal Somalia.
- Moderate temperature between 20-32 ℃ are expected over southern Sudan, …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected in parts of central and northern Ethiopia, parts of southern and south-western Sudan, parts of northern South Sudan, and western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall ranging from 50-200 mm is expected …
Temperature forecast
High daily-mean temperatures above 32 ℃ expected over northern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, Djibouti and northern Somalia, and parts of north-eastern Ethiopia.
Moderate daily-mean temperatures between 20 and 32℃ are expected over …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Heavy rainfall above 200 mm is expected over few areas of central and northern Ethiopia, southern parts of Sudan and the South Sudan-Sudan border, and adjacent areas.
Moderate rainfall between 50 mm and 200 mm …