Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
31 March - 07 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most of southern Tanzania, central to southern Ethiopia, western and northern parts of South Sudan into southern parts of Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, as well as a few regions in south-western Somalia and southern parts of South Sudan.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of southern Tanzania and isolated areas in central to southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas over southern and north-eastern Ethiopia and central to north-western Rwanda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over most highland regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of central to eastern South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of south-western Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in the Danger category expected over the northern regions of South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan, as well as eastern parts of both Tanzania, Kenya and south-western parts of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of southern Tanzania, southern Ethiopia and western regions of South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Kenya, South Sudan, eastern Rwanda, parts of Burundi, central to northern Tanzania, southern and northern Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan and western Uganda.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32oC are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of northeastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and regions in northwestern coast of Somalia.
- Moderate temperatures between 20-32oC are forecasted over southern Sudan, South …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm is expected in most parts of western Ethiopia, southwestern Sudan and northwestern South Sudan
- Moderate rainfall, 50-200 mm is forecasted in central and western Ethiopia, western Eritrea, southern Sudan, western …
Heavy rainfall
- Exceptionally heavy rainfall is expected in a few areas of northwestern and northeastern Ethiopia (100-200 mm), and over a limited area of eastern Sudan (100-200 mm). Forecast amounts are in the top 1% of rainfall …
Heavy rainfall
The forecast rainfall amounts are ranked as follows:
- Heavy Rainfall: Forecast amounts are in the top 10% of rainfall experienced in this location in the past.
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Forecast amounts are in the …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32 ℃ are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti, and regions in northern coastal Somalia.
- Moderate temperature between 20-32 ℃ are expected over southern Sudan, …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected in parts of central and northern Ethiopia, parts of southern and south-western Sudan, parts of northern South Sudan, and western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall ranging from 50-200 mm is expected …