Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
26 May - 02 June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, south-western parts of South Sudan, southern Tanzania, central regions of Kenya and Somalia-Kenya coastal border.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of Somalia, southern Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan.
Floods Update
- Most of the places in western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over southern parts of Sudan, Djibouti and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, Tanzania and most of the highlands across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western parts of South Sudan, some parts of northern Uganda, western and eastern parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and southern parts of Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to eastern Tanzania, western Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia and some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Exceptionally heavy rainfall is expected in a few areas of northwestern and northeastern Ethiopia (100-200 mm), and over a limited area of eastern Sudan (100-200 mm). Forecast amounts are in the top 1% of rainfall …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32oC are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of northeastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and regions in northwestern coast of Somalia.
- Moderate temperatures between 20-32oC are forecasted over southern Sudan, South …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected in parts of central and northern Ethiopia, parts of southern and south-western Sudan, parts of northern South Sudan, and western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall ranging from 50-200 mm is expected …
Heavy rainfall
The forecast rainfall amounts are ranked as follows:
- Heavy Rainfall: Forecast amounts are in the top 10% of rainfall experienced in this location in the past.
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Forecast amounts are in the …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 32 ℃ are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti, and regions in northern coastal Somalia.
- Moderate temperature between 20-32 ℃ are expected over southern Sudan, …
Temperature forecast
High daily-mean temperatures above 32 ℃ expected over northern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, Djibouti and northern Somalia, and parts of north-eastern Ethiopia.
Moderate daily-mean temperatures between 20 and 32℃ are expected over …