Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
31 March - 07 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most of southern Tanzania, central to southern Ethiopia, western and northern parts of South Sudan into southern parts of Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, as well as a few regions in south-western Somalia and southern parts of South Sudan.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of southern Tanzania and isolated areas in central to southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas over southern and north-eastern Ethiopia and central to north-western Rwanda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over most highland regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of central to eastern South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of south-western Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in the Danger category expected over the northern regions of South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan, as well as eastern parts of both Tanzania, Kenya and south-western parts of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of southern Tanzania, southern Ethiopia and western regions of South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Kenya, South Sudan, eastern Rwanda, parts of Burundi, central to northern Tanzania, southern and northern Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan and western Uganda.
Weekly Forecasts
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Floods update
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central and north-eastern South Sudan, pockets in central-eastern Sudan, and north-western parts of Ethiopia.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over northern parts of South Sudan as well as north-western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32℃)expected over most parts of Somalia, with temperatures exceeding 32 ℃ over parts of north-western coastal regions.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Rwanda, western and northern Uganda, central to northern Ethiopia and western Eritrea.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions in …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, and parts of the coastal regions along the Red Sea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of western regions of both Ethiopia and South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of central to northern Uganda, central to western South Sudan, …