Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
28 July - 04 August 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia, central to north-western Uganda, isolated parts of south-western Sudan, and north-eastern and south-eastern parts of South Sudan
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, central to western parts of South Sudan, Eritrea, central-eastern parts of Ethiopia, north-eastern Uganda and western regions of Kenya.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over southern parts of Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western parts of Eritrea, and isolated areas in north-eastern and southern South Sudan.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, and pocket areas in western Eritrea.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, nothern part of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over northern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over western parts of Ethiopia and isolated areas over southwestern Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over parts of southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central to northwestern parts of Uganda, western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, western and coastal parts of Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, central regions of Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in north-eastern parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in north-eastern and north-western parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) expected in Bahr el Ghazal and small pockets over the Equatoria states.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) expected over localized areas of north-western, north-eastern, and south-western parts …
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in parts of western Ethiopia, north-eastern Somalia, some pocket areas of north-western South Sudan, northern Uganda, and western Kenya.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) expected …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures above 320C are expected over the north-western coastal areas.
- Moderate temperatures between 20 -320C are expected over most parts of the country.
- Low temperatures below 200C expected …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures between 20-280C expected over much of the country.
- Low temperatures below 200C expected over small area in southern part of Eastern Equatoria state.
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in parts of north-eastern Somalia, and few places in central Ethiopia.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in southern parts of Sudan, and parts …