Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
27 October - 03 November 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over Rwanda, Burundi, western to southern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to northern and south-eastern parts of Uganda, western region of Kenya and central to northern parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, south-eastern parts of Uganda, eastern and western Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, isolated areas over central to southern parts of Kenya, isolated areas over central to north-western and south-western Uganda, isolated areas over northern Tanzania, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern parts of Kenya, central to north-western and south-western Uganda, northern Tanzania, most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over northern parts of Somalia and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, isolated areas over eastern and southern Tanzania, isolated areas over northern Somalia, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over isolated areas in southern Rwanda, isolated areas in central Burundi and isolated areas over northern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern parts of South Sudan, most parts of Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda, central to northern parts of Tanzania, central to western regions of Kenya and south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts Somalia, north-eastern and coastal regions of Kenya and southern parts of Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, central to southern parts of Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of northeastern Ethiopia, and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) expected in Bahr el Ghazal and small pockets over the Equatoria states.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) expected over localized areas of north-western, north-eastern, and south-western parts …
Heavy rainfall
Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in north-eastern parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in north-eastern and north-western parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in parts of western Ethiopia, north-eastern Somalia, some pocket areas of north-western South Sudan, northern Uganda, and western Kenya.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) expected …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm is expected in very few areas in the north-eastern part of the country.
- Light rainfall less than 50 mm is expected over northern and southern parts of the country.
- Dry …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected over small areas in northern Bahr el Ghazal and western Equatoria state.
- Moderate rainfall between 50 -200 mm expected over much of the country.
- Light rainfall less than 50 …
Heavy rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in parts of north-eastern Somalia, and few places in central Ethiopia.
- Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in southern parts of Sudan, and parts …