Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
11 - 18 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and central to northern regions of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of central to northern Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA, with parts of Sudan, Eritrea, north-western Ethiopia, and northern and western South Sudan being at least 2 degrees C warmer than the average.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea and central to southern regions of Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over isolated areas of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, south-western Kenya, and most parts of coastal regions of Somalia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
Rainfall forecast
- Light to moderate rainfall is expected over southern and northern regions.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southeastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, parts of north-western coast of Somalia, and most parts of Djibouti and Eritrea.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western South Sudan, western parts of Ethiopia, and parts of southern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda and parts of …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall ( greater than 200mm) expected in parts of north-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, and western parts of both Kenya …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over few areas in western Ethiopia and isolated areas in South Sudan.