Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 September 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Sudan, northern and eastern Uganda, central to western Kenya, central to northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions in western South Sudan, central and south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia and western Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over eastern regions of South Sudan, south-eastern Sudan, and western Eritrea.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over areas in central to south-eastern Sudan, western Eritrea, northern and eastern Ethiopia, and north-eastern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central-eastern Sudan, and northern and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern Rwanda and Burundi, and most parts of Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of central Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over isolated areas in central and northern Ethiopia as well as south-eastern Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Uganda, South Sudan, southern Sudan, central, western to northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, north-eastern Somalia, Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central to northern Sudan, southern Eritrea, Djibouti, south-eastern Ethiopia, southern Kenya, and most parts of Somalia and Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 5% on record expected over central to northern Kenya, central Rwanda, eastern Burundi, and parts of north-eastern and southern Tanzania.
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected most parts of Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and southern Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over few regions in northern and western Tanzania.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Cautionary heat stress levels expected in regions of eastern Kenya, coastal and southern Tanzania, and southern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, central to western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia and north-eastern and southern Uganda.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected …
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall expected over southern regions of Somalia.
- Light rainfall expected over southern and northern regions of Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
- Mild temperatures (less than 20 ℃) expected over few parts of northern Somalia.