Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
26 May - 02 June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, south-western parts of South Sudan, southern Tanzania, central regions of Kenya and Somalia-Kenya coastal border.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of Somalia, southern Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan.
Floods Update
- Most of the places in western parts and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and northern parts of Somalia and some parts of South Sudan are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over southern parts of Sudan, Djibouti and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, Tanzania and most of the highlands across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western parts of South Sudan, some parts of northern Uganda, western and eastern parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and southern parts of Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to eastern Tanzania, western Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia and some parts of south-eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in northern Sudan, the Red Sea coastal regions, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, central to …
Floods update
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central-western Kenya, and small pockets of eastern South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in western Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, much of Uganda, and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern parts of Uganda, coastal and …
Rainfall forecast
- Light to moderate rainfall is expected over southern and northern regions.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southeastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea and parts of north-western coast of Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, much of Uganda, eastern South Sudan, western to south-western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and south-western Sudan.
- Less than …