Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
01 - 08 September 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over northern parts of Ethiopia, isolated parts of western Eritrea and isolated parts of western South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to southern regions of Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas over northern coastal Somalia, Uganda and western regions of Kenya.
Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over isolated areas in western to northern Ethiopia and isolated areas in northwestern South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, central to northern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
Total Rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over isolated parts of western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southwestern parts of Sudan, western parts of South Sudan, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, central to western regions and coastal parts of Kenya, central to northern parts of Uganda, central to southern and northern coastal parts of Somalia, central regions of Sudan, eastern parts of South Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over northern Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of eastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, central to northern Ethiopia, and most parts of Eritrea and Djibouti.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, northern and western Ethiopia, and central to western Eritrea.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country, with temperatures exceeding 32 ℃ over the north-western coastal regions.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, western Kenya, and northern Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of southern Sudan, central Somalia, …
Floods update
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in north-eastern Ethiopia and western Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of south-western and southern parts of Sudan and central Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, northern Uganda, southern Sudan, central to …