Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
23 - 30 September 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, central to southern Sudan, central to western Kenya, central to western Ethiopia, northern Djibouti, northern Somalia, Rwanda, and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions in eastern South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia and western Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over southeastern regions of South Sudan, and highland areas of Kenya and Ethiopia.
- · Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over areas in southern and eastern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in northern Somalia, central-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and pockets in central-southern South Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern Rwanda, eastern Burundi, Uganda, and most parts of Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of central Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over isolated areas in central Ethiopia as well as south-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Uganda, central to western South Sudan, southern Sudan, central, western to northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya, and Rwanda.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central to southern Sudan, central to south-eastern South Sudan, western and southern Eritrea, Djibouti, south-eastern Ethiopia, southern Kenya, most parts of Somalia and eastern and northwestern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Floods update
Floods Update
- The expected very heavy rainfall over a few places in parts of central to southern Sudan, western Eritrea, and parts of northern Ethiopia is likely to lead to floods.
- Communities in the areas …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected in central to southern Sudan, western Eritrea, Djibouti and north-eastern Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of western Ethiopia and Eritrea, and a few places in western and southern Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Eritrea, western and north-eastern Ethiopia, most parts of Sudan, parts of South Sudan, eastern Uganda and western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in northern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia and coastal regions Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti and north-western Somalia.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Very heavy rainfall (rainfall amounts exceeding the top 5% on record) expected in parts of central, eastern and western Sudan, central to north-eastern Ethiopia, much of Eritrea, and Djibouti.