Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
11 - 18 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and central to northern regions of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of central to northern Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA, with parts of Sudan, Eritrea, north-western Ethiopia, and northern and western South Sudan being at least 2 degrees C warmer than the average.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea and central to southern regions of Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over isolated areas of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, south-western Kenya, and most parts of coastal regions of Somalia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Tanzania and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to southern Somalia, Uganda and Kenya, western and northern Tanzania.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central and northern Somalia, central to western Kenya and southern Uganda.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 5% on record expected over central to northern Kenya, central Rwanda, eastern Burundi, and parts of north-eastern and southern Tanzania.
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record …
Floods update
Flood
- The expected very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to isolated flood incidences over a few places, in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of southern, central to northern Kenya and central to southern …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected most parts of Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and southern Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over few regions in northern and western Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, central to western and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia and north-eastern and southern Uganda.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected …