Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected most parts of Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, northern Burundi, northern and central Tanzania, southern and northern Somalia, southern Ethiopia and south-eastern South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and southern and eastern regions of Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over …
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall expected over southern regions of Somalia.
- Light rainfall expected over northern to central regions of Somalia.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Cautionary heat stress levels expected in eastern regions of Kenya, coastal Tanzania, eastern and northern South Sudan, southern Somalia and eastern Sudan.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and north-eastern and southern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over southern areas of Kenya, northern Tanzania, Rwanda, and part of northern Burundi.