Weekly Forecast

At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.

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30 September - 07 October 2025

Rainfall

Temperature

Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, northern Burundi, Rwanda, parts of northern Somalia and western Kenya. 
  • Less than usual rainfall expected over southern Ethiopia and central to southern Somalia.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
  • Cooler than average temperatures expected over eastern and northern regions of South Sudan. 
Heavy rainfall
  • Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over areas in central to northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, northern Somalia and central to northern Uganda. 
Floods update
  • There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in north-central Uganda, central to north-central parts of South Sudan, and pockets in western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region in Ethiopia.  
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. 
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi. 
Heat Stress

Heat Stress

  • Elevated heat stress levels expected  in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of central to eastern Sudan. 
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of central to northern South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Rwanda, Uganda, northern Burundi, western Kenya, South Sudan, western Kenya and northern Somalia.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of southern Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, southern and eastern Tanzania. 

Weekly Forecasts

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Heat Stress
Heat Stress

Heat Stress

  • Elevated levels of heat stress expected in central to northern Sudan, parts of Eritrea, Djibouti and north-western Somalia. 
19 - 26 June 2024 Read More
Rainfall forecast
Rainfall forecast
  • Light rainfall (less than 30 mm) to dry conditions expected in parts of the country.
19 - 26 June 2024 Read More
Rainfall forecast
Rainfall forecast
  • Light rainfall (less than 30 mm) to dry conditions expected in parts of the country.
19 - 26 June 2024 Read More
Temperature forecast
Temperature forecast
  • Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country, with temperatures above 32 ℃ parts of the north-western regions.
19 - 26 June 2024 Read More
Floods update
Floods update

Floods Update

  • The expected heavy rainfall over parts of Western Ethiopia is likely to lead to flooding in these areas.
  • Communities in the areas at risk are advised to exercise caution during this period as …
19 - 26 June 2024 Read More
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • More than usual rainfall expected over parts of south-western Sudan, western Ethiopia and southern Somalia.  
  • Less than usual rainfall expected over South Sudan, Uganda and central to northern Ethiopia. 
19 - 26 June 2024 Read More