- The ongoing El Niño episode is forecast to strengthen over the coming months and persist through early 2027, with a 95 per cent chance of being categorized as ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ by late 2026.
- In the western parts of the region, where El Niño is associated with below-average rainfall during the June-September season, parts of central and northern Ethiopia, the pastoral belt of Sudan, most of Eritrea and Djibouti, Karamoja in Uganda, and western and northwestern Kenya have already had a very poor start to the season, raising concerns over reduced agricultural production and productivity.
- In the eastern sector of the region, a 'strong' El Niño, combined with a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are expected to bring above-normal rainfall, improving pasture and water availability for livestock. However, excessive rainfall substantially raises flood risk, which could lead to loss of life, crop destruction, damage to critical infrastructure, elevated risk of water- and vector-borne disease outbreaks, and disrupted access to health and nutrition services.
- For the western unimodal areas, plans should be made for likely increased humanitarian needs in the coming months, particularly during the first half of 2027, as meagre harvests are likely to result in earlier-than-usual depletion of food stocks.
- For the eastern parts of the region, now is the time to implement preparedness and anticipatory action, including informing local communities of potential flood risk, and supporting them in taking mitigation measures to reduce expected impacts and in capitalizing on the positive effects of above-average rains.
Tags:
FSNWG
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Security
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Food
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Cross-Border
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Trade
