The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience two contrasting climate conditions during the remainder of 2026, with significantly drier-than-normal conditions forecast across northern parts of the region in July to September, followed by wetter-than-normal conditions across many equatorial and southern parts during the October to December rainy season.

Countries including Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and parts of Kenya may experience below-average rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures during the July–September period, increasing pressure on water resources, agriculture, livestock and livelihoods.

Later in the year, enhanced rainfall is expected across Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, Tanzania and parts of Ethiopia. While the rains could support agricultural production, replenish water sources and improve rangeland conditions, they may also increase the risk of flooding, flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.

This long-range outlook is intended to support early preparedness and readiness actions ahead of the October–December 2026 season and should be used alongside ICPAC’s monthly and weekly forecasts, as well as national forecasts issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs); the forecast will be updated in July, with a comprehensive regional outlook to be released during the 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF74) in August 2026.