The analysis of rainfall probabilities for the October–December 2026 season shows a high likelihood (>90%) of exceeding 400 mm in parts of central to southern Somalia, central parts of Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin region, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania (Figure 2). Central parts of Tanzania, parts of southeastern Ethiopia and a few regions in southern South Sudan have probabilities of up to 30% of exceeding 400 mm. Relative to historical climatology, the likelihood of receiving 400 mm is higher over most parts of the region, with the probability of up to 50% in parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, the Lake Victoria Region and western Tanzania.