Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Showing 455 results
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and central Somalia.
- Normal conditions expected over parts of northern Sudan, Eritrea, western South Sudan, northern and southern Somalia, southern Kenya, southern Uganda, isolated parts …
Temperature forecast
Temperature Forecast May - July 2021
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over eastern Tanzania, much of Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, western and northern parts of South Sudan, and small areas in western …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions were expected over northern, central and south-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over south-eastern and north-western areas of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over southern and central …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are likely over few places in the southern, central and north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions were expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Rainfall Forecast May - July 2021
Headline: Wetter than usual conditions are expected over Sudan, Eritrea, western and northern Ethiopia, eastern and north-western South Sudan, and western Kenya.
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions were expected over the eastern and north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions were expected over the central and south-western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over most parts of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, southern South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over southern areas of Tanzania, and localized regions in Ethiopia. …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern and equatorial parts of the region including most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Kenya, southern Uganda as well as parts of south-western and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Normal to dry than …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.