Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Dates of dry or wet spells
- Longest dry spell after onset expected in October over the western and north-eastern parts of the region, and in November and December respectively in Kenya and Tanzania.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over central parts of the region; late onset expected over the eastern parts.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Fewer than usual wet spells over the western borders of the region.
- Higher than usual wet spells over the central areas of the region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country, with a small area over the south-east likely to record usual temperatures.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely all over the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions likely over the country with the north-eastern and central areas likely to record usual conditions.
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm during October to December (OND) over western areas of the region.
Onset anomalies
- Generally delayed onset over the eastern part of the region.
