Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
December 2025 - February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over parts of central Kenya and Ethiopia, northern Eritrea and coastal areas of Sudan.
- Normal to wetter than normal conditions expected over parts of Burundi, and western to southern areas of Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over central to southern Kenya, southern Uganda, eastern and western Rwanda, most parts of Burundi, central to northern, and southern Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over central parts of the region; late onset expected over the eastern parts.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over coastal Sudan, equatorial and southern parts of the region with enhanced probabilities over eastern Kenya and southern parts of Somalia.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to eastern …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions likely over the country with the north-eastern and central areas likely to record usual conditions.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely all over the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country, with a small area over the south-east likely to record usual temperatures.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Fewer than usual wet spells over the western borders of the region.
- Higher than usual wet spells over the central areas of the region.
Onset anomalies
- Generally delayed onset over the eastern part of the region.
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm during October to December (OND) over western areas of the region.