Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
April - June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, northern and western Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, southern Somalia, Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions are expected over part of south-eastern Sudan, central to southern South Sudan, most parts of Ethiopia, part of central to eastern Uganda, central to western Kenya, and most parts of Somalia.
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region including Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern Eritrea, Kenya, central to southern Somalia, central to southern South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over northern parts of Somalia, isolated areas in central-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia, and southern Eritrea.
Seasonal forecasts
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Dates of dry or wet spells
- Longest dry spell after onset expected in October over the western and north-eastern parts of the region, and in November and December respectively in Kenya and Tanzania.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over central parts of the region; late onset expected over the eastern parts.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Fewer than usual wet spells over the western borders of the region.
- Higher than usual wet spells over the central areas of the region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country, with a small area over the south-east likely to record usual temperatures.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions expected all over the country.
Onset anomalies
- Generally delayed onset over the eastern part of the region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely all over the country.
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm during October to December (OND) over western areas of the region.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions likely over the country with the north-eastern and central areas likely to record usual conditions.
