Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions expected over most parts of the region with highest probabilities over parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over coastal areas of Sudan and northern central Eritrea.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern parts of South Sudan, part of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Uganda, and northern parts of Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Djibouti, coastal Sudan and Eritrea, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, central to southern Uganda, and Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over central parts of the region; late onset expected over the eastern parts.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over coastal Sudan, equatorial and southern parts of the region with enhanced probabilities over eastern Kenya and southern parts of Somalia.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to eastern …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions likely over the country with the north-eastern and central areas likely to record usual conditions.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country, with a small area over the south-east likely to record usual temperatures.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely all over the country.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Fewer than usual wet spells over the western borders of the region.
- Higher than usual wet spells over the central areas of the region.
Onset anomalies
- Generally delayed onset over the eastern part of the region.
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm during October to December (OND) over western areas of the region.