Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
August - October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions expected over the eastern Horn, including Somalia, south-eastern and part of western Ethiopia, eastern to coastal Kenya and over few places in South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Rwanda and northern Burundi.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over much of South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Tanzania, and Rwanda.
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over central parts of the region; late onset expected over the eastern parts.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Shorter than average wet spell expected over southern Somalia, south-western South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country, with a small area over the south-east likely to record usual temperatures.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely all over the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions likely over the country with the north-eastern and central areas likely to record usual conditions.
Onset anomalies
- Generally delayed onset over the eastern part of the region.
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm during October to December (OND) over western areas of the region.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Fewer than usual wet spells over the western borders of the region.
- Higher than usual wet spells over the central areas of the region.
