October to December 2020

Rainfall

Temperature

Temperature forecast
Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most of the region with higher temperatures expected in western Uganda, central South Sudan, northeaster Sudan, parts of southern Kenya and over Tanzania’s coast.
  • Warmer than usual temperature are expected over most parts of the region.
  • Usual temperature conditions are expected over much of western and south-western Tanzania, mount Elgon areas of Kenya and Uganda, parts of north-western Ethiopia, and south-eastern Sudan.

Press Release

Summary for Decision Makers

Rainfall forecast
A drier than usual season continues to be expected in most parts of the region, including Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, most of Uganda, Kenya, southern, central and north-western Somalia and southern Ethiopia.
  • Wetter than usual conditions are expected over southern parts of Sudan, parts of South Sudan, the western border of Ethiopia, small areas in north-eastern Ethiopia, and the south-western border of Uganda.
  • Usual rainfall conditions expected in much of Uganda, north-western Kenya, Djibouti, and areas in southern, central, and northern Ethiopia.
  • Drier than usual conditions are expected over Tanzania, much of south-eastern Uganda, Kenya, southern and north-western Somalia, much of south-eastern Ethiopia, much of Eritrea, and few areas in south-western and south-eastern South Sudan. Much of Sudan is normally dry during this season.

Press Release

Summary for Decision Makers

Onset anomalies
Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia and southeaster Ethiopia.

Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia. On the other hand, rains are expected to start earlier than usual over southern Uganda, Rwanda, western Kenya; and the area centred around the border intersections of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya.  

Onset dates
Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia and southeaster Ethiopia.

Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia and south-eastern Ethiopia. On the other hand, rains are expected to start earlier than usual over southern Uganda, Rwanda, western Kenya; and the area centred around the border intersections of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya.