Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
10 - 17 September 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Rwanda, western and northern Uganda, central to northern Ethiopia and western Eritrea.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions in southern Sudan, northern Somalia and southern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over eastern regions of South Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over northern parts of South Sudan as well as north-western Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central and north-eastern South Sudan, pockets in central-eastern Sudan, and north-western parts of Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, and parts of the coastal regions along the Red Sea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, and eastern and western regions of Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya and parts of central Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over northern regions of South Sudan and Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Uganda, South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia and southern Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central Sudan, coastal regions along the Red Sea, north-eastern Ethiopia, Rwanda and coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over northern Sudan, western regions of South Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and most parts of Uganda and Tanzania.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over regions …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over southern Sudan, northern regions of South Sudan, western regions of Eritrea and northern Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Somalia, with temperatures exceeding 32 ℃ over parts of north-western coastal regions.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal regions along the Red Sea.
Floods update
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central to southern Sudan, north-eastern parts of South Sudan, and western Eritrea.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, central to north-eastern South Sudan, western Eritrea, and central to northern Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to southern Uganda, and …