Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern and equatorial parts of the region including most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Kenya, southern Uganda as well as parts of south-western and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Normal to dry than …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over most parts of the region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- The rest of the region is generally dry during this season.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over most parts of the region..
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over eastern Kenya, extending to southern areas of Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter-than-usual conditions expected over parts of the central to southern areas of the country.
- The northern part of the country is generally dry during this season.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the equatorial and southern parts of the region, with the highest probabilities over part of eastern Kenya and southern Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Average conditions expected over southern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- warmer than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual rainfall expected over southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over the equatorial and southern parts of the region.
- The northern sector is generally dry during this season.