Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Average conditions expected over southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over few areas.
- Usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions are expected over most parts of Ethiopia, western and southern Kenya, areas in central to northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and much of Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over northern and …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over south-eastern and north-western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, eastern and western Tanzania, southern Burundi, eastern Sudan, and Djibouti.
- Usual temperature conditions are likely over central Tanzania, the Karamoja …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of the country.
- Usual temperatures are likely to be recorded over northern areas of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions are likely over central and northern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are likely over southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions likely to be recorded over Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, and much of Ethiopia.
- Average conditions likely to be recorded over much of south-eastern Ethiopia, central and western South Sudan, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be experienced over part of southern, much of northern, and western parts of the country.
- Average temperature conditions likely to be recorded over a small area in the south, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperature conditions likely to be recorded over Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, northern and north-western South Sudan, western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern and western Tanzania.
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over north-eastern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions likely over the rest of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely to be recorded over parts of central and north-western areas of the country.
- Average rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over much of central and western parts of the country. …
Onset dates
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
Length of wet spells
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.