Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern parts of South Sudan, part of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Uganda, and northern parts of Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Djibouti, …
Rainfall forecast
- Normal to wetter than usual conditions expected over part of north-eastern areas of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions expected over most parts of the region with highest probabilities over parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over …
Probability Onset
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
- Normal to early onset is forecasted for the western region, especially in northern Uganda, western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and …
Length of dry spells
- Longest dry spell expected over parts of Ethiopia and Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in eastern regions such as eastern Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal Eritrea and Sudan.
- Average to cooler-than-average …
Length of wet spells
- Longest wetspell expected over the western areas of the region.
Probability of 300 mm
- Over 80 % chance of exceeding 300mm threshold over western parts of the region.
Onset dates
- Areas in western parts expected to record onset in September with eastern and southern areas expected to record onset from October and early November respectively.
Rainfall forecast
- Increased likelihood of drier conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted for western parts of the region.
- Equal probabilities in south-western Ethiopia and South Sudan, central and southern Kenya, central …
Onset anomalies
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern and part of north-eastern areas of the country.
