Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Length of wet spells
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
Rainfall forecast
- Above-normal rainfall is likely across most of the region, with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Across much of the remaining region, the probability of above-normal rainfall is …
Temperature forecast
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
Rainfall forecast
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over the whole country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-average conditions are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa
- Probabilities for warmer-than-average temperatures are most enhanced over South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and coastal regions
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected with the highest probabilities over the southern parts of the country
Length of dry spells
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
Probability of 400 mm
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
Probability Onset
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central Equatoria, parts of Eastern and western Equatoria, Pibor and eastern Upper Nile.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over parts of Eastern and western Equatoria.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions expected over most parts of the region with highest probabilities over parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern parts of South Sudan, part of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Uganda, and northern parts of Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Djibouti, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the whole country.