Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
August - October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern and southern Sudan, eastern and western South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, southern and north-eastern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over north-western Somalia, northern Ethiopia, southern Djibouti, western Eritrea, parts of western, central and eastern Sudan north-western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda and south-eastern South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region, western Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over part of north-western South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Length of dry spells
- Longest dry spell expected over parts of Ethiopia and Somalia.
Length of wet spells
- Longest wetspell expected over the western areas of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Increased likelihood of drier conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted for western parts of the region.
- Equal probabilities in south-western Ethiopia and South Sudan, central and southern Kenya, central …
Probability of 300 mm
- Over 80 % chance of exceeding 300mm threshold over western parts of the region.
Onset dates
- Areas in western parts expected to record onset in September with eastern and southern areas expected to record onset from October and early November respectively.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in eastern regions such as eastern Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal Eritrea and Sudan.
- Average to cooler-than-average …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Probability Onset
- Early onset forecasted over the eastern parts of the region, with high probabilities over parts of eastern Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia.
- Delayed onset expected over western parts of the region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
Length of wet spells
- Longer-than-usual wet spells expected over southern Somalia, much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter-than-usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher chances of wetter-than-usual conditions indicated over the eastern parts of the region.
- Drier-than-usual conditions expected over south-western parts of Uganda and isolated areas in western …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the region
- Central to northern South Sudan, Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, and western Eritrea are generally dry.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-usual conditions expected across the GHA.
- Enhanced probabilities for warmer-than-usual temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- High chances of cooler-than-usual temperatures indicated over eastern parts of Kenya.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over the eastern parts of the region.
- Delayed onset expected over the western areas of the region.