Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
August - October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions expected over the eastern Horn, including Somalia, south-eastern and part of western Ethiopia, eastern to coastal Kenya and over few places in South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Rwanda and northern Burundi.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over much of South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Tanzania, and Rwanda.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern parts of South Sudan, part of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Uganda, and northern parts of Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Djibouti, …
Rainfall forecast
- Normal to wetter than usual conditions expected over part of north-eastern areas of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions expected over most parts of the region with highest probabilities over parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over …
Length of dry spells
- Longest dry spell expected over parts of Ethiopia and Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in eastern regions such as eastern Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal Eritrea and Sudan.
- Average to cooler-than-average …
Length of wet spells
- Longest wetspell expected over the western areas of the region.
Probability of 300 mm
- Over 80 % chance of exceeding 300mm threshold over western parts of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Increased likelihood of drier conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted for western parts of the region.
- Equal probabilities in south-western Ethiopia and South Sudan, central and southern Kenya, central …
Onset dates
- Areas in western parts expected to record onset in September with eastern and southern areas expected to record onset from October and early November respectively.
Onset anomalies
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
Probability Onset
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
- Normal to early onset is forecasted for the western region, especially in northern Uganda, western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter-than-usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher chances of wetter-than-usual conditions indicated over the eastern parts of the region.
- Drier-than-usual conditions expected over south-western parts of Uganda and isolated areas in western …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern and part of north-eastern areas of the country.