Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions expected over most parts of the region with highest probabilities over parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over coastal areas of Sudan and northern central Eritrea.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern parts of South Sudan, part of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Uganda, and northern parts of Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Djibouti, coastal Sudan and Eritrea, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, central to southern Uganda, and Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central Equatoria, parts of Eastern and western Equatoria, Pibor and eastern Upper Nile.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over parts of Eastern and western Equatoria.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern parts of South Sudan, part of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Uganda, and northern parts of Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Djibouti, …
Rainfall forecast
- Normal to wetter than usual conditions expected over part of north-eastern areas of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Onset anomalies
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
Probability Onset
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
- Normal to early onset is forecasted for the western region, especially in northern Uganda, western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and …
Length of dry spells
- Longest dry spell expected over parts of Ethiopia and Somalia.
Length of wet spells
- Longest wetspell expected over the western areas of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Increased likelihood of drier conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted for western parts of the region.
- Equal probabilities in south-western Ethiopia and South Sudan, central and southern Kenya, central …
Probability of 300 mm
- Over 80 % chance of exceeding 300mm threshold over western parts of the region.
Onset dates
- Areas in western parts expected to record onset in September with eastern and southern areas expected to record onset from October and early November respectively.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in eastern regions such as eastern Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal Eritrea and Sudan.
- Average to cooler-than-average …
Probability Onset
- Early onset forecasted over the eastern parts of the region, with high probabilities over parts of eastern Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia.
- Delayed onset expected over western parts of the region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-usual conditions expected across the GHA.
- Enhanced probabilities for warmer-than-usual temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- High chances of cooler-than-usual temperatures indicated over eastern parts of Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.