Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
April - June 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperatures are expected over the cross-border areas of South Sudan-Uganda-Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and isolated areas in western Uganda and South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, much of South Sudan, southern Sudan, parts of central to south-western Ethiopia, Rwanda, parts of Burundi and Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over the eastern parts of the region.
- Delayed onset expected over the western areas of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm over southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions indicated across the Greater horn of Africa (GHA). There are enhanced probabilities for warmer than average temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti.
- Average temperatures expected over much of …
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 300mm over south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and adjacent areas of Tanzania.
Onset dates
- Western equatorial parts of the region to continue receiving rainfall through September.
- Onset expected in the north-eastern parts of the region in October, and move southwards reaching Tanzania in November.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over coastal Sudan, equatorial and southern parts of the region with enhanced probabilities over eastern Kenya and southern parts of Somalia.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to eastern …
Dates of dry or wet spells
- Longest dry spell after onset expected in October over the western and north-eastern parts of the region, and in November and December respectively in Kenya and Tanzania.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Shorter than average wet spell expected over southern Somalia, south-western South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over central parts of the region; late onset expected over the eastern parts.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions likely over the country with the north-eastern and central areas likely to record usual conditions.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country, with a small area over the south-east likely to record usual temperatures.