Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
August - October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern and southern Sudan, eastern and western South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, southern and north-eastern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over north-western Somalia, northern Ethiopia, southern Djibouti, western Eritrea, parts of western, central and eastern Sudan north-western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda and south-eastern South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region, western Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over part of north-western South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the region
- Central to northern South Sudan, Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, and western Eritrea are generally dry.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-usual conditions expected across the GHA.
- Enhanced probabilities for warmer-than-usual temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- High chances of cooler-than-usual temperatures indicated over eastern parts of Kenya.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm over southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Shorter than average wet spell expected over southern Somalia, south-western South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 300mm over south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and adjacent areas of Tanzania.
Onset dates
- Western equatorial parts of the region to continue receiving rainfall through September.
- Onset expected in the north-eastern parts of the region in October, and move southwards reaching Tanzania in November.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions indicated across the Greater horn of Africa (GHA). There are enhanced probabilities for warmer than average temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti.
- Average temperatures expected over much of …
Dates of dry or wet spells
- Longest dry spell after onset expected in October over the western and north-eastern parts of the region, and in November and December respectively in Kenya and Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over coastal Sudan, equatorial and southern parts of the region with enhanced probabilities over eastern Kenya and southern parts of Somalia.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to eastern …
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over central parts of the region; late onset expected over the eastern parts.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions likely over the country with the north-eastern and central areas likely to record usual conditions.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Fewer than usual wet spells over the western borders of the region.
- Higher than usual wet spells over the central areas of the region.
