Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions expected over most parts of the region with highest probabilities over parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over coastal areas of Sudan and northern central Eritrea.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern parts of South Sudan, part of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Uganda, and northern parts of Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Djibouti, coastal Sudan and Eritrea, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, central to southern Uganda, and Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
Length of wet spells
- Longer-than-usual wet spells expected over southern Somalia, much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania.
Probability Onset
- Early onset forecasted over the eastern parts of the region, with high probabilities over parts of eastern Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia.
- Delayed onset expected over western parts of the region.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over the eastern parts of the region.
- Delayed onset expected over the western areas of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter-than-usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher chances of wetter-than-usual conditions indicated over the eastern parts of the region.
- Drier-than-usual conditions expected over south-western parts of Uganda and isolated areas in western …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the region
- Central to northern South Sudan, Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, and western Eritrea are generally dry.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-usual conditions expected across the GHA.
- Enhanced probabilities for warmer-than-usual temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- High chances of cooler-than-usual temperatures indicated over eastern parts of Kenya.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm over southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania
Anomaly Wet spell
- Shorter than average wet spell expected over southern Somalia, south-western South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 300mm over south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and adjacent areas of Tanzania.
Onset dates
- Western equatorial parts of the region to continue receiving rainfall through September.
- Onset expected in the north-eastern parts of the region in October, and move southwards reaching Tanzania in November.
Dates of dry or wet spells
- Longest dry spell after onset expected in October over the western and north-eastern parts of the region, and in November and December respectively in Kenya and Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over coastal Sudan, equatorial and southern parts of the region with enhanced probabilities over eastern Kenya and southern parts of Somalia.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to eastern …