Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central Equatoria, parts of Eastern and western Equatoria, Pibor and eastern Upper Nile.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over parts of Eastern and western Equatoria.
Length of dry spells
- Longest dry spell expected over parts of Ethiopia and Somalia.
Length of wet spells
- Longest wetspell expected over the western areas of the region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in eastern regions such as eastern Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal Eritrea and Sudan.
- Average to cooler-than-average …
Rainfall forecast
- Increased likelihood of drier conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted for western parts of the region.
- Equal probabilities in south-western Ethiopia and South Sudan, central and southern Kenya, central …
Onset dates
- Areas in western parts expected to record onset in September with eastern and southern areas expected to record onset from October and early November respectively.
Probability of 300 mm
- Over 80 % chance of exceeding 300mm threshold over western parts of the region.
Onset anomalies
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
Probability Onset
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
- Normal to early onset is forecasted for the western region, especially in northern Uganda, western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and …
Length of wet spells
- Longer-than-usual wet spells expected over southern Somalia, much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-usual conditions expected across the GHA.
- Enhanced probabilities for warmer-than-usual temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- High chances of cooler-than-usual temperatures indicated over eastern parts of Kenya.