Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Length of wet spells
- Longer-than-usual wet spells expected over southern Somalia, much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter-than-usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher chances of wetter-than-usual conditions indicated over the eastern parts of the region.
- Drier-than-usual conditions expected over south-western parts of Uganda and isolated areas in western …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-usual conditions expected across the GHA.
- Enhanced probabilities for warmer-than-usual temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- High chances of cooler-than-usual temperatures indicated over eastern parts of Kenya.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over the eastern parts of the region.
- Delayed onset expected over the western areas of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern and part of north-eastern areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm over southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania
Probability Onset
- Early onset forecasted over the eastern parts of the region, with high probabilities over parts of eastern Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia.
- Delayed onset expected over western parts of the region.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Shorter than average wet spell expected over southern Somalia, south-western South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 300mm over south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and adjacent areas of Tanzania.
Onset dates
- Western equatorial parts of the region to continue receiving rainfall through September.
- Onset expected in the north-eastern parts of the region in October, and move southwards reaching Tanzania in November.
Dates of dry or wet spells
- Longest dry spell after onset expected in October over the western and north-eastern parts of the region, and in November and December respectively in Kenya and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions indicated across the Greater horn of Africa (GHA). There are enhanced probabilities for warmer than average temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti.
- Average temperatures expected over much of …