Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
19 August 2026 - 26 August 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western Eritrea, northern Uganda, isolated areas over western Kenya, parts of southern and south-western Sudan, and several parts of central to western South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central regions of Sudan, isolated areas over both southwestern and eastern parts of South Sudan, central parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas over northern coastal Somalia, south-western Uganda and western regions of Kenya.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of south-western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western Eritrea, north-western South Sudan, and isolated areas in both central South Sudan and northern Uganda.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of south-western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western Eritrea, north-western South Sudan, and isolated areas in both central South Sudan and northern Uganda.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, northern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over parts of western to northern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan and south-western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, few areas in western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, few areas in western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over both northern and central Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over parts of western to northern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan and south-western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, …
Heat Stress
Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of western and southern Sudan, central to northern parts of Ethiopia, and isolated areas in both north-eastern and western South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
Rainfall
- Light rainfall expected over a few places in both southern and northern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western parts of Ethiopia, northern Uganda, isolated areas over central Kenya, isolated parts of south-western Sudan, and several parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected …