Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
13 - 20 May 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of northern Uganda, and western parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia and central to southern Uganda.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the south-western parts of Ethiopia, some parts of South Sudan, parts of north-eastern Uganda and western Kenya.
Floods Update
- Flooding incidences are expected over western Ethiopia, some pockets in central South Sudan, and parts of central-western Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, central to southern Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over parts of Sudan, Djibouti and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and most of the highlands across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘extreme caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, northern and eastern Uganda, and western regions of Ethiopia and Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, south-eastern to northern Ethiopia, southern Uganda and southern Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of northern Uganda, and western parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia and central …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the south-western parts of Ethiopia, some parts of South Sudan, parts of north-eastern Uganda and western Kenya.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, central to southern Kenya and other isolated regions across …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of central to northern Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over most parts of southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, parts of north-eastern Uganda and northern Kenya.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of central to northern Sudan, northern parts of South Sudan, western parts of Ethiopia and …