Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
16 - 23 June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over south-western parts of Sudan, parts of western Ethiopia and isolated areas of northern Somalia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over South Sudan, Uganda, western regions of Kenya, central to northern Ethiopia and isolated areas over central to southern Somalia.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the south-western parts of Ethiopia, and isolated areas in both southern South Sudan and north-western Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over the highlands and isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures expected over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern coastal Somalia and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, south-western Uganda, central to southern Tanzania and central and the highlands of northern Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Isolated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over northern Sudan and central Eritrea.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over parts of southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, western region of Kenya and central to western parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, southern Kenya, most parts of Somalia, south-eastern parts of South Sudan, central and south-eastern Sudan, and some parts of southern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the south-western parts of Ethiopia, and isolated areas in both southern South Sudan and north-western Sudan.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over the highlands and isolated regions across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over isolated regions across the GHA.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over the south-western parts of Ethiopia, and isolated areas in both southern Sudan and north-western South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over few places in southern and northern Somalia.