Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
29 October - 06 October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, northern Somalia, south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and isolated areas along the coastal parts of Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over western to central parts of Ethiopia, central to western regions of Kenya, central Somalia and most parts of both South Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile expected over northern parts of Somalia extending into the eastern parts of Ethiopia.
Flooding
- Flooding incidences are expected over some parts of northern Somalia and isolated areas in south-eastern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over central to northern parts of Sudan and isolated areas in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda.
Total Rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southeastern, central and western parts of Ethiopia, western Uganda and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Somalia, central to northern regions of Ethiopia, central to western regions, northeastern and coastal parts of Kenya, eastern and southern Tanzania, most parts of Rwanda, central to southern regions of Sudan, central to western parts of Uganda and most parts of South Sudan.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea and isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, northern Somalia, south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and isolated areas along the coastal parts of Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over western to …
Heat Stress
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over some areas in southern Sudan, northern Somalia and over central to western Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over western, central to south-eastern parts of Ethiopia, central …
Rainfall forecast
Total Rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over western parts of Ethiopia, southwestern parts of Sudan and isolated areas over both western Uganda and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.