Featured Publications
Technical Statement from the 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF74)
The analysis of rainfall probabilities for the October–December 2026 season shows a high likelihood…
State of the Climate in Eastern Africa 2025
The State of Climate 2025 report is structured to deliver a comprehensive assessment of climate con…
Climate Watch Advisory: The Evolving Dry Conditions in the Northern Parts of Eastern Africa- August 2026 Update
Rainfall deficits have persisted across the northern sector of the Eastern Africa region from May t…
Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Agriculture Sector in Machakos and Makueni Counties, Kenya
This Climate Vulnerability Assessment examines the agricultural sector’s exposure and sensitivity t…
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AD-vine copula-based quantile regression towards merging satellite precipitation products over rugged topography: a case study in the upper Tekeze–Atbara Basin
Precipitation is a vital key element in various studies of hydrology, flood prediction, drought monitoring, and water resource management. The main challenge in conducting studies in remote regions with rugged topography is that weather stations …
Technical Statement from the 66th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF66)
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) released the March to May 2024 seasonal forecast which indicates a higher probability of wetter-than-normal conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. Notably, the …
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Every year Africa is hit by extreme floods which, combined with high levels of vulnerability and increasing population exposure, often result in humanitarian crises and population displacement. Impact-based forecasting and early warning for natural hazards …
Development of a data model and capacity development for human mobility due to slow-onset events in the IGAD Region
Human mobility can be categorized in a variety of ways. For example, mobility flows can be separated in terms of the distance of the movement, the length of time spent moving, the reasons for the …
Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts
Droughts are more and more often a limiting factor in agricultural production and can have severe negative effects on food security in vulnerable countries. Global agriculture early warning systems monitor agriculture in near real-time by …
Livelihoods, Resilience & Migration In the Context of Slow Onset Climate Change in the IGAD Region
Overall, participants in this study understood and attributed worsening climatic conditions to:
- Ordinary cyclicality – a bad year must be followed by a good one
- Supernatural forces
- Degradations brought to the land.
However, for some …
Comparative report on flood displacement mitigation policies
In the IGAD region, floods have become increasingly frequent and intense due to climate variability and change, resulting in 10.7 million new displacements between 2008 and 2022, related to 291 flood disasters reported (IDMC Database, …
Evaluation of CMIP6 historical simulations over IGAD region of Eastern Africa
The Accuracy of model simulations is critical for climate change and its socio-economic impact. This study evaluated23 Global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The main objective was to …
Summary for Decision Makers, October to December 2023 Season
Download our latest Summary for Decision Makers with impacts and advisories for the following sectors:
- Disaster Risk Management
- Agriculture and Food Security
- Water and Energy
- Health and nutrition
- Livestock
How should I use seasonal forecasts? …